Hūhana Lyndon leads Te Tai Tokerau poll in historic bid for Green Party

A recent Whakaata Māori-Curia poll has revealed a potential historic shift in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate, with Green Party list MP Hūhana Lyndon emerging as the frontrunner. The poll shows Lyndon leading a competitive field with 24 percent support among voters, suggesting the Green Party could be on the verge of securing its first-ever Māori electorate seat. As reported by Waatea News and the NZ Herald, the race for the northern seat is a tight contest, with Lyndon currently ahead of Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime, who polled at 18 percent. Close behind the frontrunners is Te Pāti Māori candidate Aperahama Edwards at 17 percent, while the incumbent MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi received 12 percent support. The poll, conducted between 5 and 15 October and reported by Waatea News on October 30, identifies that a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, with 22 percent of those surveyed yet to commit to a candidate. These findings were released ahead of a televised debate moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox. The 500-respondent poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percent. Journalist Dale Husband reports that this momentum comes as the election cycle reaches its peak. While the Green Party has historically relied on the party list to bring Māori representatives into Parliament, a victory in Te Tai Tokerau would mark a landmark shift in representation for the region. The surge in support for Lyndon coincides with wider election trends, including a 60 percent increase in overseas voter enrolments, who are expected to play a crucial role in determining the final shape of the government. In terms of the party vote, Labour leads in the region with 32 percent, followed closely by the Green Party at 29 percent. According to the data, the cost of living remains the most pressing issue for Te Tai Tokerau voters, cited as a top concern by 34 percent of respondents. Other significant priorities include housing at 14 percent and healthcare at 9 percent. The poll also touched on the incumbent's performance, with 40 percent of voters stating that Kapa-Kingi has done a good job during her tenure as the representative for the northernmost Māori electorate.