New Research Highlights Resilience of First Nations Australians Amid Revised Pre-Colonial Population Estimates

New research published on Tuesday evening has reshaped the understanding of Australia’s history, suggesting the pre-colonial Indigenous population was at least twice as large as previously recorded. The study, conducted by a team of researchers from across Australia, estimates a median population of 2.22 million First Nations people prior to 1788—a figure significantly higher than the previous estimates of 250,000 to one million people. Using computer modelling, archaeological data, and genetic reconstructions, the researchers aimed to provide a more accurate picture for truth-telling and reconciliation. The findings, reported by ABC News, indicate that an estimated 2.06 million First Nations Australians died due to diseases, massacres, and colonial-related displacement during the late 18th and 19th centuries. Professor Larissa Behrendt, a Eualayai/Gamillaroi woman from the University of Technology Sydney, noted that the research challenges the scale of what occurred after 1788, describing it as a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story. Despite the devastating loss—where only seven per cent of the pre-colonial population was estimated to have survived 70 years after the First Fleet's arrival—the study highlights the extraordinary resilience of Indigenous communities. Co-author Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University emphasised that while the impacts of smallpox and frontier violence were previously underestimated, the survival of Indigenous cultures is a significant feat. Professor Bradshaw stated that despite the dispossession and death, First Nations people have successfully perpetuated their languages, managed their country, and maintained their culture. Current trends show the population is recovering, reaching approximately 37 per cent of the pre-colonial median by 2021. Researchers estimate that if growth continues, the population could reach parity with 1788 levels by the year 2047.